Learn how the market works.

A player prop is a market on one player’s statistical output — points, assists, rebounds — rather than the game’s result.

A hit rate tells you what happened. Whether it was worth paying for depends entirely on the price.

Five games is noise wearing a trend’s clothes. Here’s what a small-sample streak hides.

−110, +150, and the arithmetic underneath American odds — how a price becomes a break-even rate.

A price is a probability in disguise. Implied probability is the break-even rate hidden in the odds — the common language for comparing books, models and markets.

Both sides of a market include a bookmaker’s margin. Remove it — de-vig the line — and the market’s real opinion appears.

The same prop is priced differently at every book. Comparing them is the cheapest, most repeatable habit in sports betting.

Two almost-identical prices demand clearly different win rates. The pick is the same; the bet is not.

Lines move on news, money and disagreement. Direction, size and timing turn a moving line into information.

Expected value is the arithmetic answer to “Is this price worth it?” — probability times payoff, minus risk.

CLV compares the price you took with the price the market closed at. It grades your timing and your process, not your luck.

Market probability and model probability answer different questions. The gap between them is where analysis begins.

A Signal is the gap between model probability and no-vig market consensus. Grades scale with the gap — and most lines get a PASS.

A calibrated model says 60% and it happens about 60% of the time. Calibration is checkable — which is exactly why it matters.

Positive expected value loses often. Variance doesn’t care about your edge.

Dollars distort. Units, prices and CLV show what your process is actually doing.